Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 12 Jan 2009 13:37:10 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 121930

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/121930Z-130600ZJAN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3S 164.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 790 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A REGION OF VERY TIGHT SURFACE TROUGHING AND STRONG
CONVERGENCE. A 121430Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT A SMALL
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MAY ALSO BE FORMING EAST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IN THE REGION INDICATE CONTINUED DEEPENING WITH SLP NEAR 1002 MB AND
SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-4 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONFIRMS THAT THE DISTURBANCE LIES ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BENEATH A COL REGION. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH WEAK
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PREVENTING MORE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA
HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT BOOST IN OUTFLOW ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE POORLY DEFINED LLCC, LESS THAN
OPTIMUM OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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