Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 03 Jan 2009 14:09:07 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 032000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/032000Z-040600ZJAN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 127.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 127.3E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG A
CONVERGENT BAND ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 031648Z AMSR-E PASS.
THE LLCC LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY STRONG
WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
FUELED BY THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS ENABLED THE LLCC TO
CONSOLIDATE DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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