Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 04 Mar 2009 14:24:07 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 042030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/042030Z-050600ZMAR2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
       (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7S 147.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT
METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
DEVELOPING NEAR AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 041216ZZ ASCAT PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THIS DISTURBANCE. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS GOOD, AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A 041541Z AMSRE 37V IMAGE. THE LLCC LIES IN AN AREA OF
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE
CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS A FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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