Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 26 Jan 2009 08:12:08 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 261400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/261400Z-270600ZJAN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.6S 176.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NUKU'ALOFA, TONGA.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN 261000Z ASCAT PASS. THE LLCC LIES
POLEWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODER-
ATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THIS DISTURBANCE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SHOULD
SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF THIS SHEAR AND ALLOW THE
DISTURBANCE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
BASED ON INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED FAIR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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