Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 04 Feb 2009 00:11:07 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZFEB2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.2N 139.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING
ALONG A CONVERGENT BAND ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 032031Z QUIKSCAT PASS.
THIS DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LLCC MOVES WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC MAY PROVIDE A MEANS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE THE INCREASING SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS WEAK AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
UNFAVORABLY STRONG, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
161.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 162.5E, APPROXIMATLEY 390 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT-VILA, VANUATU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER AN AREA OF
TIGHT LOW LEVEL TROUGHING EVIDENT IN A 040237Z AMSU-B PASS. THIS
DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT FAVORABLE
NORTHWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
DISORGANIZED AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HIGHER THAN OPTIMAL, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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