Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 15 Feb 2009 15:53:06 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 152230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/152230Z-160600ZFEB2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152121ZFEB2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.8S
171.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST
OF FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BAND-
ING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
15/1850Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWED STRONG BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH WEAKER, FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT,
AND A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED LLCC. A 15/1833Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWS
A STRONGER (BUT ELONGATED) LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED CONSID-
ERABLY WITH THE 15/18Z STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATING A DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CAUSED BY
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS IMPROVEMENT WITH EXPAND-
ING POLEWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SST IS
ALSO FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 152130)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED POOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
GOOD.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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