Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 13 Jan 2009 20:28:21 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 140230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/140230Z-150600ZJAN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
166.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 172.8E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
132000Z 91H SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED FLARES OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE LLCC BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS YET TO DEVELOP.
A 121817Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWED 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ALTHOUGH THE LLCC WAS POORLY DEFINED IN THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED RECENTLY WITH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WEAKENING AND EQUATORWARD VENTING BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS
EVIDENCED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, A DEEPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY POTENTIALLY LINK
WITH THE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND PROVIDE A
SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POSSIBLY ALLOWING THE AREA TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. DUE TO THE DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IMPROVED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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