Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2009 00:32:07 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/270600Z-280600ZJAN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
176.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S, 176.1W, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TAHT IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 270458Z 91H
SSMIS IMAGE. THE LLCC LIES BENEATH A REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THIS DISTURBANCE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE VWS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS;
HOWEVER, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAY OFFSET THE NEGATIVE
IMPACT OF THIS SHEAR AND ALLOW THE DISTURBANCE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING DEEP
CONVECTION AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, DESPITE MODERATE VWS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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