Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 04 Feb 2009 04:00:13 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041000Z-050600ZFEB2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 139.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A CONVERGENT BAND ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
040431Z AMSR-E PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME IMPROVEMENT IN LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THE 24 HOURS PRESSURE TREND FROM PALAU IS
NEGLIGIBLE, SUGGESTING THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS NOT DEEPENED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE SAME PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS WEAK AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR UNFAVORABLY STRONG, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
162.5E, APPROXIMATLEY 390 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT-VILA, VANUATU,
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.6S 162.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A CONVERGENT BAND ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
040639Z SSMIS PASS. A 040733Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED 20
TO 25 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THE LLCC
LIES IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND INCREASING
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
THROUGH. CONTINUED STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MAY AID DEEPENING OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BEFORE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
APPROACH THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON A
LESS-THAN-OPTIMAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND ANTICIPATED
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED POOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1),
DISSIPATED POOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1), AND ADDED POOR AREA IN
PARA 2.B.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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