Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 15 Feb 2009 23:12:05 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/160600Z-170600ZFEB2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152121ZFEB2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2S
171.5E, IS NO LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 170.3E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 15/1850Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWED STRONG BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH WEAKER, FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, AND A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED LLCC. A 15/1833Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A STRONGER (BUT ELONGATED) LLCC WITH 25-30
KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY WITH UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
INDICATING A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CAUSED BY A SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS
IMPROVEMENT WITH EXPANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SST IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. SEE REF
A (WTPS21 PGTW 152130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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