Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 01 Jan 2009 16:33:05 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 012230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/012230Z-020600ZJAN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.6N 128.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND BUILDING IN OVER A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011700Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS
THE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING BANDING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LLCC DEVELOPING. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, IN A DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LLCC TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST INTO A REGION
OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLDER NORTHEASTLY FLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1)
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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