Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 12 Jan 2009 23:24:07 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZJAN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3S
164.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 166.7E, APPROXIMATELY 655 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS, THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED FLARES OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE LLCC BUT NO EVIDENCE OF IMPROVING CONSOLIDATION. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM 915510, ABOUT 50 NM ENE, INDICATED WINDS 350/08,
SLP 1002 MB AND 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF 1.9 MB. A 122235Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWED ONLY 20-KNOT WINDS AROUND THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER VWS (SOUTH OF 16S) IN 12-
24 HOURS. IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES MAY ALSO ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT
TRACKS OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM SST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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