Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 28 Jan 2009 00:35:08 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS /280600Z-290600ZJAN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3S,
176.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.2S, 177.2W, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND A
280207Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC LIES BENEATH A REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THIS VWS HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY, BUT REMAINS
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING DEEP
CONVECTION AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, DESPITE MODERATE VWS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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