Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 03 Feb 2009 00:02:08 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZFEB2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.1S 161.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 475 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT-VILA, VANUATU. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MERIDIONALLY-
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A
021918Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE LLCC LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYLONE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHWARD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THIS SHEAR MAY
DECREASE AS THE LLCC CONTINUES TO MOVE POLEWARD TOWARD THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS
BROAD AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HIGHER THAN OPTIMAL, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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