Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2009 23:50:08 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZJAN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 128.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 042329Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG THE CONVERGENT LINE SITUATED ALONG 14-15N.
A 042151Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT
UNFLAGGED WINDS. MULTIPLE SHIP OBSERVATIONS WITHIN 130 NM OF THE
CENTER INDICATED SLP NEAR 1008 MB AND WINDS RANGING FROM 16-29
KNOTS. WINDS FROM THE 2 CLOSEST SHIPS (VNVF, PCDE) WERE 16-22
KNOTS SUPPORTING THE RECENT QUIKSCAT AND ONDB (130 NM WSW) REPORTED
340/29 KNOTS AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERN BAND OF
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES AN IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A DEVELOPING ANTI-
CYCLONE OVER THE CENTER WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE PRIMARY
HINDRANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE BANDING AND THE
NON-PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION POSSIBLY DUE TO DRY AIR ABOVE
800 MB AS SEEN IN THE LATEST KOROR SOUNDING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.