Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2009 00:40:10 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZMAR2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZMAR2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 190000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P (KEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 25.6S 160.1W, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH OF RAROTONGA, AND
HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO
55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 190300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.5S 154.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOP-
ING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES OF A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN AN 182008Z QUIKSCAT PASS.
A FLARE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER
OF THIS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYIS FURTHER INDICATES VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED
ON AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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