Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 31 Jan 2009 00:07:08 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/310600Z-010600ZFEB2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2S
146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS
REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 302129Z SSMI IMAGE AS WELL AS RADAR
IMAGERY FROM THE CAIRNS RADAR SHOW A DEFINED LLCC WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION SUPPORT A 20-25 KNOT DISTURBANCE WITH SLP
AS LOW AS 998MB. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLCC LOCATED UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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