Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 01 Jan 2009 23:40:10 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZJAN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 128.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS
REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE POLEWARD SIDE
OF THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 020146Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE ANIMATED IMAGERY, AND SHOWS BANDING
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH A DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO
MODERATE RANGE, IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LLCC TRACKS TO THE
NORTHWEST INTO A REGION OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD SURGE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
LAND AND THE EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF COLDER NORTHEASTLY FLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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