Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 03 Jan 2009 23:44:09 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZJAN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 127.3E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 040100Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN ISOLATED BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECT-
ION STILL NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THERE HAS
BEEN A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DECREASING AND NOW WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) PLUS CONTINUED STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. HOWEVER, THE LLCC STILL REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WITH
THE LATEST UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM KOROR SHOWING RELATIVELY DRY
AIR ABOVE 800 MB WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION AND
LEADING TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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