Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 16 Mar 2009 03:48:23 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 160800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/160800Z-170600ZMAR2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.1S 163.1W,
APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, COOK ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING,
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160511Z SSMI 37 GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WITH VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS (SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM), AS
WELL AS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS-
EQUATORIAL FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW AND A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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