Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 16 Mar 2009 08:21:09 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 161400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161400Z-170600ZMAR2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161251ZMAR2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S
163.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 163.2W, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
16/0803Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
SPIRALING INTO THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM, LIKE TC 20P, IS DEVELOPING
FROM THE MID-LEVELS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, UNLIKE 20P, THIS
SYSTEM HAS BETTER RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH MORE RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT AT THIS EARLY STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION, SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS INCREASINGLY SUPPORTED A
STRENGTHENING LLCC. A PARTIAL 160805Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KNOT
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THESE WINDS WERE
VERIFIED BY A 16/00Z SHIP OBSERVATION FROM MYMX5 OF 340/22 KNOTS.
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WITH VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS (SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM), AS
WELL AS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS-
EQUATORIAL FLOW. THE SST OF 29C, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND A DEEP
MOISTURE ENVELOPE (> 60MM) SUPPORT CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A
RAPIDLY ORGANIZING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 161300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO GOOD.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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