Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 02 Feb 2009 00:07:06 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/020600ZJAN2009-030600ZFEB2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011951ZJAN2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 011800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ELLIE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.3S 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH OF CAIRNS AUSTRALIA, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 012100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.9S 161.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 640 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. A 012222Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHT,
BUT ELONGATED, LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF STRONG
VERTICAL WIND WHICH IS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND LACK OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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